News

AT&T Inc. T is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 earnings before the opening bell on Jan. 27. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues and earnings is pegged at $32.29 billion and 48 cents per share, respectively. Earnings estimate for AT&T for 2024 has declined marginally to $2.21 per share over the past 60 days, while the same for 2025 has decreased to $2.14 from $2.31.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

T Estimate Trend

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Earnings Surprise History

The communications service provider delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.5%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company pulled off an earnings surprise of 1.7%.

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Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for AT&T for the fourth quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

AT&T currently has an ESP of +7.49% with a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Shaping the Upcoming Results

AT&T continues to enhance its network infrastructure, including 5G and fiber networks, to provide best-in-class coverage and capacity across the nation. The infrastructure investments position it for growth by ensuring widespread access to its services. AT&T's commitment to closing the digital divide underscores its dedication to fostering inclusive connectivity and driving socio-economic progress as the digital landscape evolves.

During the quarter, AT&T inked a multi-year purchase agreement with Corning Incorporated to leverage the latter’s industry-leading fiber, cable and connectivity solutions for fiber network expansion and delivery of high-speed, reliable Internet across the country. Per the agreement, AT&T will gain access to Corning’s most advanced connectivity solution, the Evolv FlexNAP with Multifiber Pushlok Technology. This technology’s advanced features reduce dependence on skilled labor, lower the cost per deployment and ensure up to 50% reduction in carbon footprint by minimizing duct material usage.

AT&T also inked an agreement with United States Cellular Corporation to acquire spectrum licenses for about $1 billion. The proposed buyout comprises 1,250 million MHz-Pops of 3.45 GHz and 331 million MHz-Pops of 700 MHz B/C block licenses. With a customer-centric business model, AT&T is likely to benefit from the increased deployment of mid-band spectrum and greater fiber densification. An integrated fiber expansion strategy is expected to improve broadband connectivity for enterprise and consumer markets, while steady 5G deployments are likely to boost end-user experience. These are likely to have generated incremental revenues for the Communications segment.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from the Communications segment, which accounts for the lion’s share of total revenues, is pegged at $30.74 billion, while our model projects revenues of $30.77 billion.

However, AT&T faces stiff competition in the wireless market from other major carriers that are aggressively expanding their networks and improving their offerings. Consumer’s tendency to switch to various low-priced alternatives is hurting the company’s top line. It also has a large debt burden, which dents its competitiveness and limits growth potential. In addition, a challenging macroeconomic environment, inflationary pressures and business uncertainty are forcing consumers to take a conservative approach to higher-tier services.

Moreover, AT&T is facing a steady decline in legacy services. The company’s wireline division is struggling with persistent losses in access lines as a result of competitive pressure from voice-over-Internet protocol service providers and aggressive triple-play (voice, data, video) offerings by the cable companies. High-speed Internet revenues are contracting due to the legacy Digital Subscriber Line decline, simplified pricing and bundle discounts. As AT&T tries to woo customers with healthy discounts, freebies and cash credits, margin pressures tend to escalate, affecting its growth potential to some extent.

Price Performance

Over the past year, AT&T has gained 30.8% compared with the industry’s growth of 16.7%, outperforming peers like Verizon Communications Inc. VZ but lagging T-Mobile US, Inc. TMUS.

One-Year T Stock Price Performance

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Key Valuation Metric

From a valuation standpoint, AT&T appears to be trading relatively cheaper than the industry but well above its mean. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company shares currently trade at 10.47 forward earnings, lower than 12.5 for the industry but higher than the stock’s mean of 8.15.

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Investment Considerations

With a customer-centric business model, AT&T has embarked on a multi-year strategic plan to drive sustainable growth while continuing industry-leading network investments. At the same time, the company aims to reward shareholders with attractive risk-adjusted returns of $40 billion over the next three years through dividends and share repurchases. AT&T has also offered a bullish long-term outlook backed by continued profitable 5G and fiber subscriber growth. With an improved cash flow through a robust and balanced capital allocation program, the company strives to unlock new capabilities to propel its growth momentum and help it better serve users as a platform for new products and GenAI (generative artificial intelligence) innovation.

However, spectrum crunch has become a major issue in the U.S. telecom industry, given a saturated wireless market. Most carriers are finding it increasingly difficult to manage mobile data traffic, which is growing by leaps and bounds. The situation has become even more acute with the growing popularity of iPhone and Android smartphones as well as rising online mobile video streaming, cloud computing and video conferencing services. A steady decline in legacy services and uncertain business conditions are likely to affect its profitability.

End Note

A saturated wireless market and price wars owing to competitive pressure have eroded its profitability. With declining earnings estimates, the stock is witnessing a negative investor perception. Consequently, it might be prudent to avoid the stock at the moment.

However, by investing steadily in infrastructure and pioneering new technologies, AT&T is well-positioned to bridge the digital divide and enhance the connectivity landscape nationwide. This is likely to translate into solid postpaid subscriber growth and higher average revenue per user in the Mobility Service business in the long term.

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