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Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday, April 29, 2025. Looking at PFE’s five-year history, the stock has shown an exact 50-50 split between positive and negative returns following earnings announcements. When positive, the stock has delivered a median one-day return of 2.7%, with a maximum one-day gain of 6.1%.

Analysts expect earnings of $0.68 per share on sales of $14.11 billion, representing a decline from the prior-year quarter’s earnings of $0.82 per share on sales of $14.88 billion. Vyndaqel will be the key growth driver for Pfizer, likely driving a double-digit sales growth for Pfizer excluding the Covid-19 products.

While post-earnings stock movement will depend on how results and outlook compare to investor expectations, historical performance data can guide event-driven traders. Two potential approaches include:

1. Positioning before earnings based on historical patterns
2. Entering a trade one day after the announcement based on the correlation between immediate and medium-term post-earnings returns

Now, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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Pfizer’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
• The percentage remains the same at 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 10 positive returns = 2.7%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -1.3%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

PFE 1D, 5D, and 21D post earnings return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

PFE Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Pfizer stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Pfizer. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

PFE Correlation With Peer Earnings

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.