News

Apple AAPL and HP HPQ are well-known personal computer (PC) makers in a market that is expected to see year-over-year shipment growth of more than 4.1% in 2025, per IDC. Meanwhile, U.S. shipment growth is expected to be 1.7% to hit 70.4 million in 2025, per Canalys, with commercial expected to increase 6.3%. The growing demand for AI-powered PCs and Microsoft Windows 10 end-of-service in October 2025 are key catalysts. Gartner expects AI PC global shipments to hit 77.8 million units in 2025 compared with 38.1 million shipped in 2024.

Both Apple and HP are well-poised to benefit from growing AI-powered PC demand. However, which has an edge under the current scenario?

The Case for Apple Stock

Apple’s Mac business is benefiting from strong demand for M4, M4 Pro and M4 Max chips. In March, Apple expanded its Mac portfolio with the new MacBook Air powered by the M4 chip with up to 18 hours of battery life and a new 12MP Center Stage camera. Apple also announced the new Mac Studio featuring M4 Max and the new M3 Ultra chip. The new chip is the most powerful created by Apple and features double Neural Engine cores, Thunderbolt 5 with more than 2 times the bandwidth per port for faster connectivity and robust expansion.

The latest macOS Tahoe 26 introduces a stunning new design and powerful capabilities that enable users to get even more done with their Macs. Tahoe 26 offers personalized features, including an updated Control Center and new color options for folders, app icons, and widgets. The Phone app on Mac now allows users to access familiar features from iPhone — including Recents, Contacts and Voicemails — and new ones like Call Screening and Hold Assist.

Apple’s strong Mac portfolio helped it gain market share in the second quarter of calendar 2025. Per IDC, Apple had a market share of 9.1%, up 110 basis points (bps) on a year-over-year basis. Shipment grew 21.4% year over year to hit 6.2 million. In third-quarter fiscal 2025, Mac sales increased 14.8% year over year to $8.05 billion and accounted for 8.6% of total sales.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter fiscal Mac sales is currently pegged at $8.43 billion, which indicates 9% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The Case for HP Stock

Growing interest in Generative AI-enabled PCs might give a fresh boost to HP’s PC sales. The company had earlier suggested that AI PCs could be a key growth driver beginning this year. It is forecasted that 40-60% of all PCs will be AI PCs in the next three years. To make the most of the growing opportunities in this category, HP has launched several AI PCs and plans to continue to expand its AI PC portfolio.

In third-quarter fiscal 2025, AI PC revenues grew double-digit on a sequential basis driven by strong adoption. AI PC shipment has surpassed 25% of HP’s mix, a quarter ahead of the company’s target. Launch of AI Companion, OMEN AI has been a noteworthy development. However, HP saw softer demand in Hybrid systems.

Although the company relies heavily on China for manufacturing and assembling many of its PCs, printers, and related components, nearly all products sold in North America were built outside of China, which helped in reducing trade-related costs.

Per IDC, HPQ had a market share of 20.7%, down 60 bps on a year-over-year basis in the second quarter of calendar 2025. Shipment grew 3.2% year over year to hit 14.1 million.

Earnings Estimate Revision Trend Positive for AAPL & HP

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HPQ’s fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at $3.10 per share, up by a penny over the past 30 days, indicating an 8.3% decrease over fiscal 2025’s reported figure.

HP Inc. Price and Consensus

The consensus mark for AAPL’s fiscal 2025 earnings has increased a couple of cents to $7.36 per share over the past 30 days, suggesting 9% growth over fiscal 2024.

Apple Inc. Price and Consensus

AAPL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the trailing four quarters. However, HPQ’s earnings lagged the consensus mark thrice while in line in the remaining one. Apple’s average surprise of 6.2% is better than HP’s average negative surprise of 3.41%.

AAPL and HPQ Stock’s Performance and Valuation

Year to date, Apple shares have lost 5.4%, outperforming HP, shares of which have dropped 14.9%.

AAPL and HPQ Performance

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

HP shares are cheaper compared with Apple. While HPQ has a Value Score of A, Apple has a Value Score of F, suggesting stretched valuation.

In terms of forward 12-month Price/Sales, HPQ shares are trading at 0.47X, lower than Apple’s 8.21X.

HPQ and AAPL Valuation

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Conclusion

Apple’s strong Mac portfolio, supported by the latest models, is positive for the iPhone maker’s growth trajectory. However, HP’s declining market share is a headwind.

Although Apple and HP carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each, growing demand for Macs bodes well for AAPL stock’s prospects. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.